Every December, beauty publications release their trend predictions for the coming year. Most are based on runway looks, editor preferences, and whatever ingredient is getting the most TikTok views.
Those predictions are fun to read. They're also unreliable. Here's what the actual purchasing data, search volume, and sell-through reports tell us about where beauty is heading in 2026.
Body care is the fastest-growing category
While everyone talks about skincare innovation, body care is quietly exploding. Body serums, body retinol, body SPF - consumers are extending their facial skincare routines below the neck. Search volume for "body care routine" has grown 340% over two years. Brands like Nécessaire, Soft Services, and Sol de Janeiro have demonstrated that consumers will pay premium prices for body products when the formulations justify it.
For brands: this is a genuine whitespace opportunity. The category is growing faster than the competition can fill it.
Fragrance is having its biggest moment in decades
Fragrance sales have grown 15% year-on-year, driven largely by younger consumers who treat scent as identity expression. The "fragrance wardrobe" concept - owning multiple scents for different moods and occasions - has moved from niche to mainstream.
Importantly, this growth is happening across price points. £15 body mists and £250 niche perfumes are both growing. The losers are the legacy designer fragrances stuck in the middle with generic positioning.
"Clinical" is the new "clean"
The clean beauty wave has peaked. Consumers - particularly Gen Z - are now more interested in efficacy claims backed by clinical data than in ingredient exclusion lists. "Dermatologist-tested," "clinically proven," and specific percentage improvements are outperforming "free from" messaging in ad testing.
This shift rewards brands that invest in clinical trials and can substantiate their claims with real data. It punishes brands whose entire positioning was built on fear-based marketing about ingredients.
AI-generated content is already everywhere (and consumers don't care)
Here's a finding that surprised even me: in blind testing, consumers couldn't distinguish AI-assisted product photography from traditional studio shoots 73% of the time. And when told which images were AI-generated, it didn't affect their purchase intent.
The implication is significant. Brands spending £5k per SKU on photography when AI tools can produce comparable results at a fraction of the cost are going to face pressure - either from their own margins or from competitors who've already made the switch.
What's overhyped
Skin cycling - search volume peaked months ago and is declining. Probiotic skincare - the science is still too early for the marketing claims being made. Waterless beauty - interesting concept, minimal consumer demand. AI shade matching apps - technically impressive, commercially unproven at scale.
The meta-trend
The overarching pattern is that beauty consumers are becoming more sophisticated. They want evidence over marketing, specificity over aspiration, and products that fit their existing routines rather than requiring new ones.
Brands that treat their customers as informed adults - showing data, explaining ingredients, being honest about what products can and can't do - will win in 2026. The era of vague promises and pretty packaging as a standalone strategy is ending.